November is bringing an interesting election to this state. If anything, even the most virulent Trump-haters have to admit that he’s Made Politics Interesting Again.
But this is the most curious choice awaiting Californians in the polling booths.
On the one hand, there is the pragmatic approach to this proposed 3-way split of the Golden State.
Pure raw numbers only. What would they yield, and are they the only factor to be considered whether to vote for this measure?
Each of the proposed states would have roughly the same population…about 13 million. California’s 55 electoral votes would be distributed in the same measure with a couple of states receiving more than one. Maybe 19/19/17, with “new” California receiving the least.
These are the raw figures, and based on that alone, it makes little sense, as a Republican voter, to vote for this measure. Each state would still have majority Democratic voters with South California having the smallest number, proportionately, and New California (surprise, surprise) having the highest proportion of Leftists. The only positive in such a scenario is that California’s jackpot of 55 electoral Democratic votes would be diluted if any of the 3 states goes red, which is possible. South California, with a tenuous Democratic majority of about 55%, has a strong likelihood of swinging Republican since many of the voters in this state would be illegal or first generation Mexicans, a demographic that tends not to show up on Election Day.
If any of the states go red, it is a win for Republicans. If not, the Democrats get the better deal. The Dems might gain 2 senators, but conversely lose a third of their existing electoral votes. South California’s course would spell out whether this is a winner or loser for Republican Party. New California and North California are lost causes. The Democratic majority aligned with the ethnic and class make-up of those states would create an immutable Democratic voting block that won’t change in the foreseeable future.
South California is the only hope for Republicans.
Beside depending on the “no-show effect” due to the large Mexican representation of South California Democrats, I believe there will also be an “invigoration effect” among Republicans in S.C.. Having been voiceless and buried by the oppressive Democratic monopoly statewide for decades, the possibility of having their “own” state would serve to unleash and liberate many Republicans. Their commitment might be rejuvenated and thus sensing that their vote counts again, might show up in greater numbers. South California, with the largest proposed population of the 3 states, would absolutely garner the highest number of electoral votes.
If nothing else, voting for this measure would act as the intangible political atomic bomb that this state needs.
A vote for the measure is also a vote for burning the fucker down which could very well be what we desire for California’s realignment because the Big One just isn’t happening.